Accuracy of wind forecasts
Moderator: MK
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- Posts: 19
- Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 5:59 pm
Accuracy of wind forecasts
Just took snowkiting 101 this weekend and can't stop coming to this website to check out the wind forecasts. (Might have to worry about my company blocking this website!)
Is there a simple chart that says: 1 day out it is 90% accurate, 2 days out 75% accurate etc? I did a search on Lakawa but couldn't find an answer. Would be a great topic in the knowledge section. As a newbie the whole studying the wind is totally new to me.
Have to keep the Mrs. happy by planning as far in advance as possible. A little negotiation minimizes the pain. Then, when the reserved day comes and there is no wind she doesn't like that I am home and am messing with her plans. I'll never understand...
Is there a simple chart that says: 1 day out it is 90% accurate, 2 days out 75% accurate etc? I did a search on Lakawa but couldn't find an answer. Would be a great topic in the knowledge section. As a newbie the whole studying the wind is totally new to me.
Have to keep the Mrs. happy by planning as far in advance as possible. A little negotiation minimizes the pain. Then, when the reserved day comes and there is no wind she doesn't like that I am home and am messing with her plans. I'll never understand...
a good read is the interview in the Interview section by the Noaa Meteologist. She explans weather systems pretty well.
I use the 10 day MRF for long range forecasting. I'm looking for tight isobars. Remember it is in zulu time which is 6 hours ahead. Therefore the graph for 0Z Sunday is really 6pm on Saturday.
Then I watch the Graph under each city. They usually come in line a within a 3 days of a system arriving. You can now go up to 4 days out with the graph.
Then the day of I'm looking at the Graph and the Noaa Experimental 12 hour which seems to be the most accurate of all.
Everyone has their own methods for reading all the models. These are just the ones that I find the most accurate. Maybe others will chime in with their opinion.
I do a Free Reading the Forecasts and Weather clinic once or twice a year. Most likely will be doing one again in the Spring.
good to hear the stoke is growin in ya.
I use the 10 day MRF for long range forecasting. I'm looking for tight isobars. Remember it is in zulu time which is 6 hours ahead. Therefore the graph for 0Z Sunday is really 6pm on Saturday.
Then I watch the Graph under each city. They usually come in line a within a 3 days of a system arriving. You can now go up to 4 days out with the graph.
Then the day of I'm looking at the Graph and the Noaa Experimental 12 hour which seems to be the most accurate of all.
Everyone has their own methods for reading all the models. These are just the ones that I find the most accurate. Maybe others will chime in with their opinion.
I do a Free Reading the Forecasts and Weather clinic once or twice a year. Most likely will be doing one again in the Spring.
good to hear the stoke is growin in ya.
Tighe
Re: Accuracy of wind forecasts
The "Mrs" will eventually accept your forthcoming addiction and realize that all plans are tentative! Or, she will leave you. One or the other.Jimmychunga wrote: Have to keep the Mrs. happy by planning as far in advance as possible. A little negotiation minimizes the pain.
Never commit, it might blow that day.
Kurt
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- Posts: 129
- Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2002 11:21 am
- Location: Spring Lake on the south end of Prior Lake
Is there any place that keeps the past wind records; actual VS forecasted?
I was surprised as I just went to the NWS (Nat'l Weather Service) from the Lawaka Wind button and it said stuff like 3-6 MPH and tomorrow light wind increasing to 10-13 MPH. That's a lot better than 5 to 15 MPH the standard weather channel and underground usually have.
The real question is should I be trying to kite tomorrow or go boarding at little 'ol Buck hill
I was surprised as I just went to the NWS (Nat'l Weather Service) from the Lawaka Wind button and it said stuff like 3-6 MPH and tomorrow light wind increasing to 10-13 MPH. That's a lot better than 5 to 15 MPH the standard weather channel and underground usually have.
The real question is should I be trying to kite tomorrow or go boarding at little 'ol Buck hill
ENJOY ........... Bill
Both Noaa and Underground have historical data.
here's the Underground
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA
There is also the Hourly Data Link in the Current conditions page that has the past 24 hours
here's the Underground
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA
There is also the Hourly Data Link in the Current conditions page that has the past 24 hours
Tighe
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- Posts: 19
- Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 5:59 pm
Trust me. I can't express how much I would love to have her out with me but she doesn't have any interest.
I'm going to buy a kite this week and am also hoping to find a small (4m or smaller) kite for her and other friends to try.
Maybe once I get a little better and get to know the community I'll have her come out to 'watch' and you guys can convince her to give it a try. I would really appreciate that!
I'm going to buy a kite this week and am also hoping to find a small (4m or smaller) kite for her and other friends to try.
Maybe once I get a little better and get to know the community I'll have her come out to 'watch' and you guys can convince her to give it a try. I would really appreciate that!
It’s when you start making bed sheets out of old kites, that's when you know you have a problem…mmmm, that’s not a bad idea.
Last edited by Chris B on Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Slingshot Kiteboarding/Midwest Mountaineering Regional Team Rider
I've had the girlfriend who is also the rider. Not sure it is always the best thing. Sure you both want to head to the lake when it's windy, but your ride is ultimately connected to hers. If you're the caring significant other, and they are not having a good day, you need to sympathize, you need to leave your high and feel their pain. If you suggest that they take a kite that is the wrong size, even though it may have been right for the wind when you rigged it for them, then you'll hear about it.
Also, they may learn to kite but not have the passion for it that you do. Then you have a situation where they come along, maybe ride about an hour and then are "waiting" for you to stop so you can go home vs staying at home and doing their own thing.
Sure it's hard to break free for your sessions when your partner doesn't ride, but there is also a wonderful thing to be completely free during your ride.
I think it can work both ways. If you have an exceptional partner who rides, they will give you your space, you will share your passion, and all will be good. If you have an exceptional partner who has no interest in kiting they will understand that kiting ignites your soul and you will be a better person if you are able to kite. So I guess the key is to find those exceptional partners.
I use the term "partners" only because these same issues apply to the men in the lives of woman kiters. While many of the women kiters are some of our significant others, many are approaching it on their own. Who knows it may be easier for them, but then again if my girlfriend got really excited about going and hanging out with a whole bunch of half naked, mainly single, athletic dudes as often as she could...I might have an issue with it.
Interesting topic.
Toby from Kiteforum has hinted that he's developing some system for connecting with your wind driven soulmate. It'll be interesting to see what he comes up with.
Also, they may learn to kite but not have the passion for it that you do. Then you have a situation where they come along, maybe ride about an hour and then are "waiting" for you to stop so you can go home vs staying at home and doing their own thing.
Sure it's hard to break free for your sessions when your partner doesn't ride, but there is also a wonderful thing to be completely free during your ride.
I think it can work both ways. If you have an exceptional partner who rides, they will give you your space, you will share your passion, and all will be good. If you have an exceptional partner who has no interest in kiting they will understand that kiting ignites your soul and you will be a better person if you are able to kite. So I guess the key is to find those exceptional partners.
I use the term "partners" only because these same issues apply to the men in the lives of woman kiters. While many of the women kiters are some of our significant others, many are approaching it on their own. Who knows it may be easier for them, but then again if my girlfriend got really excited about going and hanging out with a whole bunch of half naked, mainly single, athletic dudes as often as she could...I might have an issue with it.
Interesting topic.
Toby from Kiteforum has hinted that he's developing some system for connecting with your wind driven soulmate. It'll be interesting to see what he comes up with.
Tighe
Jimmychunga
If your woman is smaller than you, I recommend a 2 meter foil practice kite. They are fun, you can fly them on a soccer field, easy, can't break them when they crash, and they will not be likely to loft her. I know it seems expensive to start small, but those little ones are really addicting if you have never boarded before. If the addiction comes first, the rest will fall in place.
If your woman is smaller than you, I recommend a 2 meter foil practice kite. They are fun, you can fly them on a soccer field, easy, can't break them when they crash, and they will not be likely to loft her. I know it seems expensive to start small, but those little ones are really addicting if you have never boarded before. If the addiction comes first, the rest will fall in place.